Rotarians arriving at the Grey Eagle were met at the front desk by Karl Herzog, assisted by Linda Anderson who, along with David Williams, located and handed us our name badges (First time I have seen mine in 18 months). There were 25 of us present, while 31 gathered on Zoom. Zoom guests were greeted by Gerry Meek.
President Marlene Doherty opened the meeting sharply at noon with recognition of our presence on the ancestral lands of those indigenous peoples who have taken care of it for so long.
Gerry Meek performed masterfully in leading us in O Canada.
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| Our guest speaker, Todd Hirsch, Vice President and Chief Economist, ATB Financial was introduced by Mary Jayne Assaly. Todd spends much of his time delivering dynamic, clear-eyed talks on the economy, creativity, adaptability and the future of work and has been recognised as one of Canada’s most influential people. He is the recipient of several prestigious awards, has taught economics at U of C and U of A and worked as an economist for over 25 years. He has authored four books, serves on the boards of the Glenbow Museum and the Alberta Ballet and hosts a podcast, The Future Of, where he and his guests explore what the future might look like. Todd’s topic today was From Reopen to Rebuild. |
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Todd began with an historical story, set in Japan, on the art of repairing broken pottery. Repair techniques evolved from simply fixing functionality, to repairs that led to significant enhancement from the original piece. This formed an underlying base for his presentation – our economic recovery cannot simply repair the old systems, restoring them to function as they used to, but must affect a transformation to new and improved developments.
Todd is forecasting real GDP growth for Alberta of 6% in 2021 and 4% in 2022. While the numbers sound great, we must remember we suffered a contraction of 8.2% in 2020. He expects we will not fully recover to pre-covid levels before the second half of 2022.
In the energy sector, the price environment is stable, but energy will not be a growth engine.
Growth is occurring, and will continue, in the technology and digital sectors, agriculture and agrifoods, renewable energy and clean energy technology (wind, solar and hydrogen) and, in Calgary, film and TV production.
Risks to growth are the severity of the delta variant covid wave, global political events and instability, US and global economic slowdowns, and oil prices.
The Alberta labour market has improved (to 8% unemployment) but has stalled with a combination of a reduction in those seeking employment while employers are seeing difficulties in filling (skilled) positions. Factors contributing to the number of potential workers not seeking employment include the “lazy” worker (sufficient income through EI benefits); don’t like their job or career path, newfound ways to earn income from home on-line, early retirement choices and the lack of availability of quality daycare. There is a disconnect between employers and potential employees.
So, returning to the title of this talk and the analogy of the broken pottery, reopening the economy is the easy part. Rebuilding the economy takes focus and time, moving, not back to where we were, but forward to a new and improved environment. This requires education, training and continuous skill development; social inclusion and addressing inequalities; embracing social and cultural differences and diversity; embracing climate change goals and the opportunity to be leaders; but, these all require intention and commitment.
Malcolm Harrison thanked Todd for his usual excellent presentation, citing his excellent analysis and predictive forecasts. A donation was made in Todd’s name to Shelter Box. Two or three questions were entertained, but many were deferred to a post meeting Q&A.
Those interested in following Todd’s leadership can tune in to The Future Of podcasts, online at ATB.
Announcements
- Ken Montgomery, promoting the upcoming auction, told us 36 items had been submitted, but more are needed. The deadline for proposing items for the auction is October 11.
- President Marlene noted the deadline for the Citizenship Award nominations is (almost) upon us.
- Don Edie noted the last walk/bike, etc, for Move for Polio will be at Edworthy Park on October 24.
- Malcolm Harrison announced the low gross for the annual golf tournament went to Steve Strang. Bill Lawless took low net
- Karl Herzog is beginning a successor initiative to Motive Action. There will be a casino on November 21 and 22 requiring volunteers.
- Tim Anderson is requesting RSVP’s for the celebration scheduled for the evening of October 14 at the Calgary Golf and Country Club, recognising, roasting and celebrating past presidents Gerry Meek and Bill Fitzsimmons.
- David Wartman is looking for one or two more participants for the Rotary Curling League (Thursdays at 4:00pm)
- Barbie Hames announced October birthdays and anniversaries.
- Bill Quinney is coordinating our club’s contribution to setting up and taking down the lighting for the field of crosses. He will provide specifics via a forthcoming email.
- President Marlene awarded the Building Community Pin for this month to David Impey. She thanked all those who participated in this meeting before adjourning at 1:00pm
- Rob Rakochey has received an award as one of Calgary’s best lawyers.
There will be no meeting on October 11, Thanksgiving Day.
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